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[Splinter]

'......but across the Middle East now, the situation is so unpredictable and events are moving so fast that almost anything can happen....'

(Above is part of a quote from the BBC.)

But is this simply a domino effect as is described on the BBC?
Many of the leaders in countries such as Egypt, Yemen and Libya have been in power for decades ( as was Gen Franco in Spain) and rule these countries with an iron fist.
Popular uprisings, as have happened here in Argentina on numerous occasions are popular by those who regard democracy as the be all and end all, but The West (aka The USA) would rather see stability through the back door with such leaders.
I remain a firm believer as do many, that Saddam Hussein could have been contained or allowed to be toppled by his own people as has recently happened in Tunisia, thus avoiding the disaster that Iraq is today.
Of course many countries hide behind the veil of democracy (Argentina is a prime example) for their own convenience.
And I haven't even mentioned the power of the interweb and the speed at which information can now be passed.

[Wooster]

Benefit of hindsight there I think.

There's a big difference between what we are seeing in places like Tunisia and Egypt compared to Iraq 12 years ago, the people there were struggling to survive at the time due to the UN imposed sanctions.
For instance, infant mortality rates under the sanction were running at between 13 and 30%, depending on which area of the country they were unfortunate enough to be born in. (The centre and south of the country was worse than the Kurdish north).

Don't forget, there were also attempts at uprisings by Kurds in the North and Shi'ites in the South.
As a result of the Kurdish uprising Saddam gassed 40 villages, and in the South he bulldozed villages, killed thousands and destroyed the people's way of life.

[Wooster]

It's really kicking off in Egypt now. 

[Splinter]

Of course it's hindsight.
I'm simply asking hypothetically what may have happened if we had left Saddam to his own devices.
We all know why they went in and it wasn't for him that's for sure.

And yes, it's getting nasty in Egypt.
Who's next?

[Splinter]

Mubarak must be shitting himself.
Saudi should be expecting yet another guest................

[Wooster]

Has made his announcement yet?

-edit- I see he has.

btw, I reckon Mubarak goes to the same plastic surgeon as Silvio Berlusconi.

[Thermalsig]

There are so many unseen possible complications here. If the canal shuts down, somebody's going to pay a lot more for oil. That is of course a secondary consideration to life being lost, possible civil war. There is a huge pot of money controlled and run through there. More than a few countries are shitting there pants thinking of what may happen.
http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/01/28/trouble-in-the-suez-oil-tankers-surge-on-egyptian-violence/

[Patch]

Wow I never thought of the canal angle. Everybody knows that corridore has the potential to start conflict. The gatekeeper on that little part of earth certainly has power.
A good chanel to watch through all this is http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/?foo=bar Always objective and not often skewed.

[Wooster]

I've started watching Al Jazeera myself in order to add a bit of balance.

They don't shy away from gruesome reality either...unlike the BBC.

[AlexC]

Al Jazeera now added to ‘Favourites’ in IE8.

Has to be better than the Nazionist view we get elsewhere…

[Splinter]

I think it's just a matter of time for Mubarak.
I believe he's been grooming his son for leadership;but would the people have that?

[Wooster]

Doubt it.

The Egyptian military is going to be the key here and need to decide who it is they serve.
So far they're holding fast. 

[Splinter]

This could be the turning point.
The army has now sided with the people.

[corroded]

Wow I never thought of the canal angle. Everybody knows that corridore has the potential to start conflict. The gatekeeper on that little part of earth certainly has power.
A good chanel to watch through all this is http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/?foo=bar Always objective and not often skewed.

Loving the debugging in the al-jazeera link there.... ?foo=bar... reckon their using some open source stuff for their site, always seems to show up in PHP/Perl/Python code!

[Splinter]

I noticed foobar too!